doi: 10.18178/ijesd.2026.17.1.1558
Estimation of Dissolved Oxygen Concentration in El Quimbo Hydropower Plant
Víctor Manuel Hincapié Toro1
,
Juan Pablo Romero Sánchez1 ,
Juan Esteban De la Calle2 ,
Amalia Avendaño Sánchez3 ,
Luis Daniel Benavides Navarro3,* ,
Agustín Marulanda Guerra3
- 1O&M Renewable, Enel Colombia, Bogotá DC. Colombia
- 2Independent consultant
- 3Universidad Escuela Colombiana de Ingeniería Julio Garavito, Bogotá DC, Colombia
- Manuscript receivedFebruary 26, 2025
- revisedMay 26, 2025
- acceptedJune 9, 2025
- publishedJanuary 16, 2026
Abstract
Hydropower plants represent the largest category of renewable energy sources. However, they have a common environmental issue: they reduce the amount of dissolved oxygen in the rivers where they discharge the turbine outflow. Estimating dissolved oxygen levels in a practical manner represents an ongoing challenge for energy generation companies. This study presents a comprehensive model for predicting dissolved oxygen concentration using statistical regression techniques. The model is validated using data from El Quimbo hydropower plant in Colombia to predict dissolved oxygen in the water discharged into the Magdalena River. The approach uses Ordinary Least Squares regression to calibrate the river's dynamic model of oxygen concentration. The results show that the model explains 79.8% of the variability in dissolved oxygen concentration (R2 = 0.798). The estimation of the required oxygen injection indicates that the highest demand occurs in September, reaching 39.99 tons per month. Model performance was assessed using statistical criteria, obtaining an Akaike Information Criterion (AIC) of 873.3 and a Schwarz-Bayesian Information Criterion (BIC) of 882.9. While this model provides a valuable initial tool for optimizing oxygen injection strategies to mitigate environmental impacts and ensure adequate water quality in hydroelectric projects, the paper also discusses future work on implementing a real-time control system for water oxygenation using more sophisticated machine-learning models.
Keywords
- dissolved oxygen concentration
- hydropower plant
- ordinary least squares
- water quality
- estimation of dissolved oxygen levels
How to Cite
Víctor Manuel Hincapié Toro, Juan Pablo Romero Sánchez, Juan Esteban De la Calle, Amalia Avendaño Sánchez, Luis Daniel Benavides Navarro, and Agustín Marulanda Guerra, "Estimation of Dissolved Oxygen Concentration in El Quimbo Hydropower Plant," International Journal of Environmental Science and Development, vol. 17, no. 1, pp. 1-8, 2026. https://doi.org/10.18178/ijesd.2026.17.1.1558
Copyright & License
Copyright © 2026 by the authors. This is an open access article distributed under the Creative Commons Attribution License which permits unrestricted use, distribution, and reproduction in any medium, provided the original work is properly cited (CC BY 4.0).