Abstract

There are many signals of the impacts of globalclimate on pedestrian wind and thermal comfort, citizen healthby exposure to the climate and air pollution concentrations andbuilding energy demand energy. We have studied direct effectsof the two future (2030, 2050 and 2100) climate projections,IPCC RCP 4.5 (stabilization emission scenario) and RCP 8.5(little effort to reduce emissions), respect to present (2011), overthree European cities: Madrid, Milan and London with veryhigh spatial resolution: 50 meters. Climatic variables and airpollution concentrations are dynamically downscaled from 1º to50m using a computational dynamical downscaling modellingsystem. The outputs of the Community Earth System Model(CESM) and its coupling with Weather Research andForecasting and Chemical (WRF/Chem) model (25 km, 5km and1km spatial resolutions) provides present and future climatescenarios. The output from the WRF/Chem model at 1 kmresolution is used to drive a micro-scale computational fluiddynamics model, MICROSYS (50 m). The methodology toestimate percentages of climate/pollution-related deaths andhospital admissions due to global climate are based onepidemiologic analysis of weather/air pollution and health datato characterize and quantify mortality/morbidity associations.Building energy simulations are implemented with theEnergyPlus model using buildings prototypes which are basedon ASHRAE 90.1 Prototype Building Modeling Specifications.Also urban comfort (wind, thermal) indicators from apedestrian point of view are calculated. We propose to use theDutch wind nuisance standard (NEN 8100) which applies adiscomfort threshold for the hourly mean modeled wind speed.The physiological equivalent temperature (PET) is calculatedevery grid cell as index of the urban thermal comfort. This workis part of the European project DECUMANUS We haveidentified the highlight areas with elevated exposure to globalclimate from different point of views: comfort, health andenergy; this information can be used to prepare plans andimplement adaptations to reduce effects of climate change on thecitizen and building energy demand.