Abstract

The purpose is to forecast the number of damaged maritime structures at each coastal region for each pass of typhoons from the central pressure of typhoon. Using data on the damage of maritime structures caused by 74 typhoons during previous 25 years from 1980 to 2004, vulnerability of 4 coastal regions along the coastline of Kumamoto Prefecture in the west of Kyushu Island of Japan is estimated for 13 groups of typhoon with different paths. It is possible to forecast the number of damage cases and the sensitivity of coastal regions by giving the path and the central pressure of the typhoon at a latitude of 30°N. The conclusion shows that the improved Central Pressure (CP) method can be used to estimate the damage level of maritime structures that will occur along the coast before a typhoon strikes. The forecasting method reported here will be used for the purpose of coastal zone management in disasters prevention works. Further, it is useful for information of storm warning and evacuation for fishermen, offices and crew.