Abstract

Ho Chi Minh City, Vietnam's largest and fastest-growing metropolis, faces escalating challenges in maintaining adequate water security amid rapid urbanization, rising industrial demand, and climate-related pressures. This study applies the Analytic Hierarchy Process (AHP) combined with a composite sustainability scoring formula to assess the level of sustainable water security in Ho Chi Minh City across three criteria groups: Efficiency in Water Supply, Ability to Ensure Water Quality, and Adaptability to Water-Related Risks and Disasters. Drawing on primary survey data collected from 200 government officers and academic professionals using a 5-point Likert-scale evaluation instrument and employing a modified 5-point pairwise comparison scale with geometric mean aggregation of expert judgments, the study derives weighted sustainability scores for 14 indicators organized into three criterion groups. Results indicate that Ho Chi Minh City's overall sustainability score is 3.95 (on a scale of 1–5), corresponding to a “potential sustainability” level. Efficiency in Water Supply attains the highest group score (4.32), followed by Adaptability to Water-Related Risks and Disasters (3.49) and Ability to Ensure Water Quality (3.53). An Importance-Performance analysis reveals significant discrepancies between weights and scores within the supply efficiency group, with high-priority indicators such as water accessibility and per-capita availability performing below expectations given their weights. Sensitivity analysis confirms that the overall sustainability assessment is robust to±10%–20% variations in weights. The study contributes a replicable city-level assessment framework adaptable to other rapidly urbanizing cities in Southeast Asia, and provides actionable policy recommendations for transitioning from “potential” to “sustained” water security in line with Sustainable Development Goal 6.