Abstract

The COVID-19 epidemic has profoundly affectedurban waste management systems, resulting in variations ingarbage creation that complicate traditional forecastingtechniques. This study presents an enhanced forecastingframework that combines the Holt-Winters-Confidence Interval(HWCI) projection model with the Seasonal AutoregressiveIntegrated Moving Average (SARIMA) model to augment theprecision and dependability of waste generation forecasts. TheHWCI model mitigates anomalies and volatile oscillationscaused by the pandemic, delivering accurate trend modificationsand integrating confidence ranges to resolve uncertainties. TheSARIMA model effectively captures both seasonal and nonseasonalfluctuations, facilitating accurate forecasts of garbagegeneration trends until 2024. The combined HWCI andSARIMA models provide reliable, long-term forecasts, evenamidst unforeseen interruptions, enabling waste managementagencies to proactively address changing trash generationtrends. This research greatly advances urban trash managementby improving forecasting approaches that promotesustainability and resilience. Initially, it presents a novelamalgamation of Holt-Winters and SARIMA models,specifically tailored to tackle the intricate and variablecharacteristics of waste generation data in metropolitan settings.Secondly, the incorporation of confidence intervals offers adependable method to quantify uncertainties, guaranteeing thatpredictions remain actionable throughout diverse settings. Thestudy ultimately offers a pragmatic framework that facilitatesdata-driven decision-making, resource optimization, and longtermstrategic planning. This research provides acomprehensive forecasting solution that assists municipalitiesand urban planners in creating more adaptable and sustainablewaste management systems, in accordance with overarchingenvironmental objectives including decreasing resourceinefficiencies and mitigating ecological consequences. Theproposed strategy emphasizes the necessity of using predictiveanalytics into urban sustainability efforts, enhancing thecleanliness and resilience of urban environments.