Abstract

Global climate changes due to increasedgreenhouse gases and changes in land use such as urbanizationpose challenges for conservation strategies. In this research toassessment the effects of climate changes in Balighloo Chaibasin, during the 2050s, A2 and B1 scenarios were downscaledwith LARS-WG and were compared with the 1983-2013 period.Results showed the increase between -0.47 to 3.09 percent inaverage annual rainfall and the increase between 1.80 to 2.02 °Cin average temperature in the 2050s. Two land use scenarioswere developed to predict the impact of land use changes on therunoff in the coming decades: in the first scenario the currentland use assumed fixed and unchangeable in future and in thesecond scenario assumed the same trend of changes which hasoccurred in the past (continuation of the past changes) . Resultsshow a decrease of 41 percent in rangelands area and 21 percentincrease in agricultural area to 2050s. In order to simulate thehydrologic system in the coming decades, HEC-HMS modelcalibrated and validated using real data. Results showedincrease of peak flow and flood volume in April and decrease ofpeak flow and flood volume in March, May, and June. If landuse change occurs with climate change, this changes will beintensified.