Abstract

This research work aims to assess the impact offuture climate change on water resources availability in Sindriver basin, India using Hydrological model SWAT. Futureclimate projections under PRECIS RCM generated outputswith IPCC SRES A1B Scenarios have been used. Modelcalibration and validation has been carried out with averagemean monthly stream flow observations recorded at threegauge stations (Pachauli, Seondha and Bhind). First thirteenyears (1987-99) stream flow observations have been used forcalibration with a initial 3 years (1987-89) data as warm upperiod then calibrated for next 10 years and model has beenvalidated for the consequent 6 years (2000-05) with measuredvalues. The model simulations with evaluation statistics shows avery good performance of stream flow predictions with R2values ranged from 0.83 - 0.92, NSE from 0.81- 0.89 and PBIASfrom -12.08 to -24.19 for the observed and simulated values ofstream flow during calibration and validation. Results showthat evapotranspiration (ET) across the Sind river basin isincreasing from baseline to mid century (5%) and to endcentury (6%) and the increase in precipitation in end century(18%) indicates that more extreme high intensity events may beexpected due to climate change.