Abstract—In the paper an attempt has been made to predict the maximum rainfall, authoritative for drainage systems dimensioning, particularly for 2050 in Wroclaw (Poland). Research material was represented by archival pluviographic records from the Institute of Meteorology and Water Management meteorological station, from the time span 1960–2018. From the research material, a number of 30 – 30-year measurement series were separated, which formed the basis for the development of probabilistic models of maximum rainfall. For statistical analyses, the rainfalls were selected with the use of the peak-over-threshold (POT) method. For such prepared data, an empirical probability of exceedance was attributed, followed by the identification of the parameters estimators of generalized exponential distribution (GED), using the maximum likelihood method. In order to verify the compatibility between the assumed – theoretical and the empirical distributions, a λ-Kolmogorow test was carried out. The applied Mann–Kendall test demonstrated the statistically relevant changes trends of equations parameters describing the dependency the two estimators (scale and location parameters) on rainfall duration. As a result, the equations were obtained, which allowed to determine the prediction model of maximum precipitation amounts, dependent on the duration, probability of exceedance and a year, on which the rainfall is calculated.
Index Terms—Climate change, Mann–Kendall test, maximum likelihood method, time series.
The authors are with Wroclaw University of Science and Technology, Faculty of Environmental Engineering, 27 Wybrzeże Wyspiańskiego Street, 50-377 Wroclaw, Poland (e-mail: firstname.lastname@example.org, email@example.com).
Cite: B. Kaźmierczak and K. Wartalska, "Changes in Maximum Rainfall Amounts in Wroclaw (Poland)," International Journal of Environmental Science and Development vol. 10, no. 11, pp. 368-372, 2019.Copyright © 2019 by the authors. This is an open access article distributed under the Creative Commons Attribution License which permits unrestricted use, distribution, and reproduction in any medium, provided the original work is properly cited (CC BY 4.0).