IJESD 2014 Vol.5(6): 575-580 ISSN: 2010-0264
DOI: 10.7763/IJESD.2014.V5.549
DOI: 10.7763/IJESD.2014.V5.549
Differences in Wind Forecast Accuracy in the German North and Baltic Seas
D. Zastrau, M. Schlaak, T. Bruns, R. Elsner, and O. Herzog
Abstract—This work assesses the accuracy of the wind speed
and wind direction forecast in the German North and Baltic
Seas by comparing measurements from offshore observation
stations in the sea with forecasts data by the German Weather
Service which have been linearly interpolated in time. The
seasonal and geographical variations are discussed by
evaluation of the RMS error and the bias of the forecast
look-ahead period up to 174 hours. The statistical evaluation
allows the forecast of threshold exceedance probabilities for the
purpose of risk analysis. The analysis is based on data from
2005 to 2010. It shows that wind speed and direction forecast
accuracy seasonally vary by 25%. Also the evaluation revealed
significant geographical variation of the wind direction forecast
bias. A negative wind speed assimilation bias was found in both
North and Baltic seas.
Index Terms—Offshore, risk analysis on sea weather forecast, wind speed and wind direction.
D. Zastrau is with ANWI Institue, HS Emden-Leer, Germany and University of Bremen, Germany (e-mail: david.zastrau@wirtschaft.hs-emden-leer.de).
M. Schlaak is with EUTEC Institute, HS Emden-Leer, Germany (email: michael.schlaak@hs-emden-leer.de).
R. Elsner is with ANWI Institute, HS Emden-Leer, Germany (email: reinhard.elsner@hs-emden-leer.de).
O. Herzog is with TZI Bremen, Germany and Jacobs University (email: herzog@tzi.de).
T. Bruns is with German Weather Service (DWD) (email: thomas.bruns@dwd.de).
Index Terms—Offshore, risk analysis on sea weather forecast, wind speed and wind direction.
D. Zastrau is with ANWI Institue, HS Emden-Leer, Germany and University of Bremen, Germany (e-mail: david.zastrau@wirtschaft.hs-emden-leer.de).
M. Schlaak is with EUTEC Institute, HS Emden-Leer, Germany (email: michael.schlaak@hs-emden-leer.de).
R. Elsner is with ANWI Institute, HS Emden-Leer, Germany (email: reinhard.elsner@hs-emden-leer.de).
O. Herzog is with TZI Bremen, Germany and Jacobs University (email: herzog@tzi.de).
T. Bruns is with German Weather Service (DWD) (email: thomas.bruns@dwd.de).
Cite:D. Zastrau, M. Schlaak, T. Bruns, R. Elsner, and O. Herzog, "Differences in Wind Forecast Accuracy in the German North and Baltic Seas," International Journal of Environmental Science and Development vol. 5, no. 6, pp. 575-580, 2014.
General Information
- ISSN: 2010-0264 (Print); 2972-3698 (Online)
- Abbreviated Title: Int. J. Environ. Sci. Dev.
- Frequency: Bimonthly
- DOI: 10.18178/IJESD
- Editor-in-Chief: Prof. Richard Haynes
- Managing Editor: Ms. Cherry L. Chen
- Indexing: Scopus (CiteScore 2022: 1.4), Google Scholar, CNKI, ProQuest, EBSCO, etc.
- E-mail: ijesd@ejournal.net
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