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    • ISSN: 2010-0264
    • Frequency: Bimonthly (2010-2014); Monthly (Since 2015)
    • DOI: 10.18178/IJESD
    • Editor-in-Chief: Prof. Richard Haynes
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Editor-in-chief
The University of Queensland, Australia
It is my honor to be the editor-in-chief of IJESD. The journal publishes good papers in the field of environmental science and development.
IJESD 2014 Vol.5(6): 575-580 ISSN: 2010-0264
DOI: 10.7763/IJESD.2014.V5.549

Differences in Wind Forecast Accuracy in the German North and Baltic Seas

D. Zastrau, M. Schlaak, T. Bruns, R. Elsner, and O. Herzog
Abstract—This work assesses the accuracy of the wind speed and wind direction forecast in the German North and Baltic Seas by comparing measurements from offshore observation stations in the sea with forecasts data by the German Weather Service which have been linearly interpolated in time. The seasonal and geographical variations are discussed by evaluation of the RMS error and the bias of the forecast look-ahead period up to 174 hours. The statistical evaluation allows the forecast of threshold exceedance probabilities for the purpose of risk analysis. The analysis is based on data from 2005 to 2010. It shows that wind speed and direction forecast accuracy seasonally vary by 25%. Also the evaluation revealed significant geographical variation of the wind direction forecast bias. A negative wind speed assimilation bias was found in both North and Baltic seas.

Index Terms—Offshore, risk analysis on sea weather forecast, wind speed and wind direction.

D. Zastrau is with ANWI Institue, HS Emden-Leer, Germany and University of Bremen, Germany (e-mail: david.zastrau@wirtschaft.hs-emden-leer.de).
M. Schlaak is with EUTEC Institute, HS Emden-Leer, Germany (email: michael.schlaak@hs-emden-leer.de).
R. Elsner is with ANWI Institute, HS Emden-Leer, Germany (email: reinhard.elsner@hs-emden-leer.de).
O. Herzog is with TZI Bremen, Germany and Jacobs University (email: herzog@tzi.de).
T. Bruns is with German Weather Service (DWD) (email: thomas.bruns@dwd.de).

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Cite:D. Zastrau, M. Schlaak, T. Bruns, R. Elsner, and O. Herzog, "Differences in Wind Forecast Accuracy in the German North and Baltic Seas," International Journal of Environmental Science and Development vol. 5, no. 6, pp. 575-580, 2014.

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