IJESD 2013 Vol.4(6): 652-657 ISSN: 2010-0264
DOI: 10.7763/IJESD.2013.V4.432
DOI: 10.7763/IJESD.2013.V4.432
The Propagation of Probabilistic and Possibilistic Uncertainty in a Life Cycle Assessment: A Case Study of a Naphtha Cracking Plant in Taiwan
Kevin Fong-Rey Liu, Si-Yu Chiu, Ming-Jui Hung, and Jong-Yih Kuo
Abstract—The use of a life cycle assessments (LCA) is
dramatically increasing, partially due to the ease of use of the
commercial software. However, there is a critical doubt about
the credibility of the assessment results, particularly in endpoint
assessments. Each phase of a LCA involves some simplifications,
assumptions and choices. More research is required to improve
the credibility of assessments, such as studies of time and space
effects and studies of dose-response effects. Another method of
improving the credibility of assessments is to characterize,
propagate and analyze uncertainty in a LCA. In this study, a
probabilistic method (Monte Carlo simulation) and a
possibilistic method (fuzzy set theory) are used to model
uncertainty in the inventory (input data) of a naphtha cracking
plant in Taiwan. The results of the probabilistic and possibilistic
approaches are compared and discussed. The results show that
although probability and possibility distributions have
approximately the same bottom width, their highest peaks have
almost the same value. The primary difference between
probabilistic and possibilistic methods is in the number of
calculations. In this study, at least 10,000-time simulations are
used for a Monte Carlo simulation, in order to obtain a
smoother curve and the vertex method for the possibilistic
approach only uses 11 α-cuts (intervals), to produce a smooth
triangle.
Index Terms—Life cycle assessment, Monte Carlo simulation, fuzzy set theory, possibility theory.
K. F. R. Liu, S. Y. Chiu, and M. J. Hung are with the Department of Safety, Health and Environmental Engineering, Ming Chi University of Technology, New Taipei City, Taiwan (e-mail: kevinliu@mail.mcut.edu.tw; mingjui@mail.mcut.edu.tw).
J. Y. Kuo is with the Department of Science and Information Engineering, National Taipei University of Technology, Taipei, Taiwan (e-mail: jykuo@ntut.edu.tw).
Index Terms—Life cycle assessment, Monte Carlo simulation, fuzzy set theory, possibility theory.
K. F. R. Liu, S. Y. Chiu, and M. J. Hung are with the Department of Safety, Health and Environmental Engineering, Ming Chi University of Technology, New Taipei City, Taiwan (e-mail: kevinliu@mail.mcut.edu.tw; mingjui@mail.mcut.edu.tw).
J. Y. Kuo is with the Department of Science and Information Engineering, National Taipei University of Technology, Taipei, Taiwan (e-mail: jykuo@ntut.edu.tw).
Cite:Kevin Fong-Rey Liu, Si-Yu Chiu, Ming-Jui Hung, and Jong-Yih Kuo, "The Propagation of Probabilistic and Possibilistic Uncertainty in a Life Cycle Assessment: A Case Study of a Naphtha Cracking Plant in Taiwan," International Journal of Environmental Science and Development vol. 4, no. 6, pp. 652-657, 2013.
General Information
- ISSN: 2010-0264 (Print); 2972-3698 (Online)
- Abbreviated Title: Int. J. Environ. Sci. Dev.
- Frequency: Bimonthly
- DOI: 10.18178/IJESD
- Editor-in-Chief: Prof. Richard Haynes
- Managing Editor: Ms. Cherry L. Chen
- Indexing: Scopus (CiteScore 2022: 1.4), Google Scholar, CNKI, ProQuest, EBSCO, etc.
- E-mail: ijesd@ejournal.net
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