Abstract—There are many signals of the impacts of global
climate on pedestrian wind and thermal comfort, citizen health
by exposure to the climate and air pollution concentrations and
building energy demand energy. We have studied direct effects
of the two future (2030, 2050 and 2100) climate projections,
IPCC RCP 4.5 (stabilization emission scenario) and RCP 8.5
(little effort to reduce emissions), respect to present (2011), over
three European cities: Madrid, Milan and London with very
high spatial resolution: 50 meters. Climatic variables and air
pollution concentrations are dynamically downscaled from 1º to
50m using a computational dynamical downscaling modelling
system. The outputs of the Community Earth System Model
(CESM) and its coupling with Weather Research and
Forecasting and Chemical (WRF/Chem) model (25 km, 5km and
1km spatial resolutions) provides present and future climate
scenarios. The output from the WRF/Chem model at 1 km
resolution is used to drive a micro-scale computational fluid
dynamics model, MICROSYS (50 m). The methodology to
estimate percentages of climate/pollution-related deaths and
hospital admissions due to global climate are based on
epidemiologic analysis of weather/air pollution and health data
to characterize and quantify mortality/morbidity associations.
Building energy simulations are implemented with the
EnergyPlus model using buildings prototypes which are based
on ASHRAE 90.1 Prototype Building Modeling Specifications.
Also urban comfort (wind, thermal) indicators from a
pedestrian point of view are calculated. We propose to use the
Dutch wind nuisance standard (NEN 8100) which applies a
discomfort threshold for the hourly mean modeled wind speed.
The physiological equivalent temperature (PET) is calculated
every grid cell as index of the urban thermal comfort. This work
is part of the European project DECUMANUS We have
identified the highlight areas with elevated exposure to global
climate from different point of views: comfort, health and
energy; this information can be used to prepare plans and
implement adaptations to reduce effects of climate change on the
citizen and building energy demand.
Index Terms—Climate change, energy demand, health, dowscaling.
Roberto San José, Juan L. Pérez, and Libia Pérez are with Environmental Software and Modelling Group, Computer Science School, Technical University of Madrid (UPM), Madrid, Spain (e-mail: email@example.com, firstname.lastname@example.org, email@example.com).
Julia Pecci, Antonio Garzón, and Marino Palacios are with Indra S.A., C/ Mar Egeo, 4, Pol. Industrial 1, 28830 San Fernando de Henares, Madrid, Spain.
Cite: Roberto San José, Juan L. Pérez, Libia Pérez, Julia Pecci, Antonio Garzón, and Marino Palacios, "Direct Impacts of Global Climate Change on Urban Areas," International Journal of Environmental Science and Development vol. 8, no. 3, pp. 208-215, 2017.