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IJESD 2021 Vol.12(12): 372-376 ISSN: 2010-0264
doi: 10.18178/ijesd.2021.12.12.1363

Analysis and Prediction of Meteorological Drought Area by Using Standardized Precipitation Index in Northeast, Thailand

Sirimanee Kornkosa, Nutthakarn Phumkokrux, Patiya Pattanasak, and Supaporn Manajitprasert

Abstract—The objectives of this work are: 1) to monitor the trend of rainfall data in in-season rice field period of Thailand (April to August). 2) to analyze meteorological drought by Standardized Precipitation Index : SPI in Northeast Thailand in in-season rice field period of Thailand and 3) to predict the rainfall data in in-season rice field period of Thailand of 2021. The average monthly rainfall data in April to August of 1990 – 2020 were gathered from 31 meteorological stations covered Northeast area of Thailand by Meteorological Department of Thailand. The data were used to draw trend of monthly average rainfall to track a change of rainfall in the period. Then, these were used to create distribution of meteorological drought characteristics maps under SPI criteria. Moreover, Single Moving Average model is used to predict the rainfall data with the lowest MAPE at 11.13 percentage. The results show that the higher meteorological drought risk area was always found in south-west side of the region in June to August. Moreover, average monthly rainfall increases from April and hit the peak in July and August. The trend of total monthly rainfall in in-season rice field period fluctuates along the study period with average value at 977.98 millimeters and its trend tends to be decreased at 0.1052 millimeters per year.

Index Terms—Meteorological drought, drought in Thailand, standardized precipitation index, rainfall change.

The authors are with the Department of Geography, Faculty of Education, Ramkhamhaeng University, Bangkok, Thailand (e-mail: sirimaneekornkosa@gmail.com, ph.nutthakarn@hotmail.com, patiya@ru.ac.th, Supaporn_m@ru.ac.th).

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Cite: Sirimanee Kornkosa, Nutthakarn Phumkokrux, Patiya Pattanasak, and Supaporn Manajitprasert, "Analysis and Prediction of Meteorological Drought Area by Using Standardized Precipitation Index in Northeast, Thailand," International Journal of Environmental Science and Development vol. 12, no. 12, pp. 372-376, 2021.

Copyright © 2021 by the authors. This is an open access article distributed under the Creative Commons Attribution License which permits unrestricted use, distribution, and reproduction in any medium, provided the original work is properly cited (CC BY 4.0).

General Information

  • ISSN: 2010-0264 (Print)
  • Abbreviated Title: Int. J. Environ. Sci. Dev.
  • Frequency: Bimonthly(Since 2022); Monthly
  • DOI: 10.18178/IJESD
  • Editor-in-Chief: Prof. Richard Haynes
  • Executive Editor: Ms. Nancy Y. Liu
  • Indexing: Scopus (since 2019), Google Scholar, CNKICrossref, ProQuest, EBSCO, etc. 
  • E-mail: ijesd@ejournal.net