Abstract—Agriculture is one of the most sensitive sectors to climate change, and any degree of change will bring potential or significant impact to agricultural productivity. Compared to other sectors like water resources, forests and other natural ecosystems, agriculture is the most vulnerable to climate change. In this background the present study is undertaken to analyze the changes in rainfall and temperature over a period of two decades and its possible impacts on agricultural productivity at district and mandal / block level in Mahabubnagar district of Andhra Pradesh. The analysis included statistical evaluation of rainfall, temperature and other meteorological parameters. Statistical software’s were used to perform regression and cluster analysis and to calculate the R2 values which varied from nil to 0.25 in the six mandals selected for the study. Based on these analyses an assessment of the agricultural productivity of the area was made and compared with the agricultural Gross Domestic Product(GDP) of the Mahabubnagar region using Ordinary Least Square (OLS) model. The finding indicate R2 values without GDP varies from 0.07 to 0.31 for the three crops where as when the GDP values are considered R2 values are from 0.29 to 0.72.
Index Terms—Agricultural GDP, Agro-climatic regions, average linkage method, ordinary least square model.
The authors are with Environment Area, Administrative Staff College of India, Khairtabad, Hyderabad, Andhra Pradesh, India (e-mail: firstname.lastname@example.org; email@example.com; firstname.lastname@example.org).
Cite: Valli Manickam, K. Shanti Sree, and Iyyanki V. Murali Krishna, "Study on the Vulnerability of Agricultural Productivity to Climate Change in Mahabubnagar District, Andhra Pradesh," International Journal of Environmental Science and Development vol. 3, no. 6, pp. 528-532, 2012.